Russians to face dilemma if Ukraine presses hard in Kharkiv Oblast – ISW
5 August, 2022

If Ukraine can press hard around Izyum, continuing the counteroffensive on Kherson, then the Russian troops will face a very difficult choice. The seriousness of the dilemma for the Russians probably depends on the ability of the Armed Forces to conduct significant counteroffensive operations on several front lines at the same time, announced the American Institute for the Study of War in its latest operational update.

Analysts explained that the Russian invading forces will likely have to decide whether to abandon their westward positions around Izyum in favor of protecting their land lines of communication further north and east, or bring in more personnel and equipment to try to hold the current front line.

"Such forces would have to come from another axis, however, putting other Russian gains at risk," the report reads.

Other conclusions of the Institute regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war as of August 4:

  • Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations;
  • Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Izyum;
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of localized counterattacks between Izyum and Slovyansk and regained positions in a number of settlements;
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut;
  • Russian troops continued attempts to advance on Pisky and conducted a limited ground attack southwest of Donetsk City;
  • Russian forces continued to transfer equipment and personnel to northeastern Kherson and western Zaporizhia oblasts.