How Will Elections Change Turkey?

Turkey will today decide whether it wants to remain under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking a second five-year term in power.

The simultaneously-held presidential and parliamentary elections, which have been marred by a shooting and reports of vote rigging, will mark the final step in the country’s transition to a new executive presidential system.

Hromadske spoke to Balkan Devlen, an associate professor and Marie Sklodowska Curie fellow at Copenhagen University’s political science department, about the Turkish elections and the country’s future.

Balkan, what is the most critical thing in this election? To what extent are the Turkish people expecting change, and what change if so are they expecting?

Realistically speaking, I think a lot of people are hoping that there will be change in parliament re-elections rather than the presidential elections. I think the real question with the presidential elections will be if this will go to the second round or not. The opposition don't expect to win in the first round, that's pretty sure. The strategy is to be able to push it to the second round, and the government under Erdogan wants to finish this off with the first round. That will be the crucial aspect and whether Erdogan can pass the 50% in the first round or not, and to what extent this will be accepted by the opposition.

Photo credit: EPA-EFE/SRDJAN SUKI

But the primary thing, the primary hope for the opposition, is in the parliamentary elections, and that they will manage to control or at least not allow the coalition between AKP and MHP to have the majority in the parliament. That could create, and that would be seen, as a good victory for the opposition, if they can manage to take control of the parliament, because now we're transitioning into a system that Turkey didn't have before, and we don't know know the practicalities of that particular system. However, when we have a parliament that is controlled by the opposition in a presidential system, where the president is from the other party, that could lead to further tensions.

Photo credit: EPA-EFE/SRDJAN SUKI

If we speak about the public mood, is Erdogan getting stronger? Does he feel stronger after everything that has happened in the last couple of years? Does this election show that there is more balance in power coming to Turkey?

I don't think he feels stronger. There are signs actually that would suggest that he actually feels weaker, or at least that there's a sense emanating from the public that he's no longer seen as invincible, I think, that's the primary thing. That's what gives hope to the opposition. The mood was, when I talked to people back home, one of hope. This is our chance to make a different. It's no longer a forgone conclusion that he will win. There's enthusiasm from people, from very young to very old, you can see everyone. This is regardless of the party, actually. Pro-government, pro-Erdogan supporters, are very much enthusiastic about the election, they think this is their chance, where they have to go the polls to protect their leader as well.

Photo credit: EPA-EFE/SRDJAN SUKI

Erdogan, I don't think he feels very comfortable and that's very clear from the governmental circles, with a lot of them trying to consolidate their own base, trying to come up with scenarios of what would happen if we lose, we cannot lose this election, we cannot let this go, so you should go vote, you should not let your dissatisfaction with particular party leaders or candidates prevent you from voting for Erdogan, or preventing you from AKP.

If we speak about the position and in particular the candidacy of Muharrem Ince, what kind of person is he?

His style very clearly aims at making sure that as many regular CHP voters, the urban secular middle classes voting for CHP go to the polls and vote for Ince and make sure that eve ryone else is voting and that this goes to the second round. And then, he probably would go and reach out to the Kurds and others, trying to bring the rest of the country that is not behind Erdogan under his umbrella. But, he is in essence, playing in a very populist way. But as a campaigning strategy, it is very clearly on making sure the base stays where it is rather than some neutral candidate or democratic candidate that might be agreed upon by coalition members in the opposition, and in that sense it was a very smart choice.

Photo credit: EPA-EFE/SRDJAN SUKI

Нe was generally seen as the representative of the more Kemalist groups within the public, but his current sort of political base and his current political arguments and campaign rest on very squarely the middle class, urban, secular concerns. He represents that particular group area clearly, and trying to reach out to others. He comes from a poor family, a family of peasants, he worked, he was a physics teacher for 15 years, but he is in that sense an epitome, a good representative of that urban middle class that rises through the state education and feels a connection to the Turkish state. But they're very secular, very urbanized, and very modernist. He is in a way, a representative of that class, and he turned out to be a very good orator. Someone who can talk in a very similar way that Erdogan talks to his base. He knows how to touch upon the emotional strings, and he is not afraid of confrontation. In that sense, I think he might turn out to be the proper opposition leader that eventually, later on, will challenge Erdogan.